A risk score based on baseline risk factors for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: To develop a sensitive and clinically applicable risk assessment tool identifying coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with a high risk of mortality at hospital admission. This model would assist frontline clinicians in optimizing medical treatment with limited resources. METHODS: 6415 patients from seven hospitals in Wuhan city were assigned to the training and testing cohorts. A total of 6351 patients from another three hospitals in Wuhan, 2169 patients from outside of Wuhan, and 553 patients from Milan, Italy were assigned to three independent validation cohorts. A total of 64 candidate clinical variables at hospital admission were analyzed by random forest and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analyses. RESULTS: Eight factors, namely, Oxygen saturation, blood Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, admission before the date the national Maximum number of daily new cases was reached, Age, Procalcitonin, C-reactive protein (CRP), and absolute Neutrophil counts, were identified as having significant associations with mortality in COVID-19 patients. A composite score based on these eight risk factors, termed the OURMAPCN-score, predicted the risk of mortality among the COVID-19 patients, with a C-statistic of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90-0.93). The hazard ratio for all-cause mortality between patients with OURMAPCN-score >11 compared with those with scores ≤ 11 was 18.18 (95% CI 13.93-23.71; p < .0001). The predictive performance, specificity, and sensitivity of the score were validated in three independent cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The OURMAPCN score is a risk assessment tool to determine the mortality rate in COVID-19 patients based on a limited number of baseline parameters. This tool can assist physicians in optimizing the clinical management of COVID-19 patients with limited hospital resources.

The Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Determines Clinical Efficacy of Corticosteroid Therapy in Patients with COVID-19.

Corticosteroid therapy is now recommended as a treatment in patients with severe COVID-19. But one key question is how to objectively identify severely ill patients who may benefit from such therapy. Here, we assigned 12,862 COVID-19 cases from 21 hospitals in Hubei Province equally to a training and a validation cohort. We found that a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) > 6.11 at admission discriminated a higher risk for mortality. Importantly, however, corticosteroid treatment in such individuals was associated with a lower risk of 60-day all-cause mortality. Conversely, in individuals with an NLR ≤ 6.11 or with type 2 diabetes, corticosteroid treatment was not associated with reduced mortality, but rather increased risks of hyperglycemia and infections. These results show that in the studied cohort corticosteroid treatment is associated with beneficial outcomes in a subset of COVID-19 patients who are non-diabetic and with severe symptoms as defined by NLR.

No significant association between dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors and adverse outcomes of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP4) is commonly targeted to achieve glycemic control and has potent anti-inflammatory and immunoregulatory effects. Recent structural analyses indicated a potential tight interaction between DPP4 and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), raising a promising hypothesis that DPP4 inhibitor (DPP4i) drugs might be an optimal strategy for treating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among patients with diabetes. However, there has been no direct clinical evidence illuminating the associations between DPP4i use and COVID-19 outcomes. AIM: To illuminate the associations between DPP4i usage and the adverse outcomes of COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, retrospective analysis including 2563 patients with type 2 diabetes who were hospitalized due to COVID-19 at 16 hospitals in Hubei Province, China. After excluding ineligible individuals, 142 patients who received DPP4i drugs and 1115 patients who received non-DPP4i oral anti-diabetic drugs were included in the subsequent analysis. We performed a strict propensity score matching (PSM) analysis where age, sex, comorbidities, number of oral hypoglycemic agents, heart rate, blood pressure, pulse oxygen saturation (SpO2) < 95%, CT diagnosed bilateral lung lesions, laboratory indicators, and proportion of insulin usage were matched. Finally, 111 participants treated with DPP4i drugs were successfully matched to 333 non-DPP4i users. Then, a linear logistic model and mixed-effect Cox model were applied to analyze the associations between in-hospital DPP4i use and adverse outcomes of COVID-19. RESULTS: After rigorous matching and further adjustments for imbalanced variables in the linear logistic model and Cox adjusted model, we found that there was no significant association between in-hospital DPP4i use (DPP4i group) and 28-d all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.44, 95%CI: 0.09-2.11, P = 0.31). Likewise, the incidences and risks of secondary outcomes, including septic shock, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or acute organ (kidney, liver, and cardiac) injuries, were also comparable between the DPP4i and non-DPP4i groups. The performance of DPP4i agents in achieving glucose control (e.g., the median level of fasting blood glucose and random blood glucose) and inflammatory regulation was approximately equivalent in the DPP4i and non-DPP4i groups. Furthermore, we did not observe substantial side effects such as uncontrolled glycemia or acidosis due to DPP4i application relative to the use of non-DPP4i agents in the study cohort. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrated that DPP4i use is not significantly associated with poor outcomes of COVID-19 or other adverse effects of anti-diabetic treatment. The data support the continuation of DPP4i agents for diabetes management in the setting of COVID-19.

In-Hospital Use of Statins Is Associated with a Reduced Risk of Mortality among Individuals with COVID-19.

Statins are lipid-lowering therapeutics with favorable anti-inflammatory profiles and have been proposed as an adjunct therapy for COVID-19. However, statins may increase the risk of SARS-CoV-2 viral entry by inducing ACE2 expression. Here, we performed a retrospective study on 13,981 patients with COVID-19 in Hubei Province, China, among which 1,219 received statins. Based on a mixed-effect Cox model after propensity score-matching, we found that the risk for 28-day all-cause mortality was 5.2% and 9.4% in the matched statin and non-statin groups, respectively, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.58. The statin use-associated lower risk of mortality was also observed in the Cox time-varying model and marginal structural model analysis. These results give support for the completion of ongoing prospective studies and randomized controlled trials involving statin treatment for COVID-19, which are needed to further validate the utility of this class of drugs to combat the mortality of this pandemic.

Longitudinal Association Between Markers of Liver Injury and Mortality in COVID-19 in China.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a new infectious disease. To reveal the hepatic injury related to this disease and its clinical significance, we conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study that included 5,771 adult patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in Hubei Province. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We reported the distributional and temporal patterns of liver injury indicators in these patients and determined their associated factors and death risk. Longitudinal liver function tests were retrospectively analyzed and correlated with the risk factors and death. Liver injury dynamic patterns differed in alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and total bilirubin (TBIL). AST elevated first, followed by ALT, in severe patients. ALP modestly increased during hospitalization and largely remained in the normal range. The fluctuation in TBIL levels was mild in the non-severe and the severe groups. AST abnormality was associated with the highest mortality risk compared with the other indicators of liver injury during hospitalization. Common factors associated with elevated liver injury indicators were lymphocyte count decrease, neutrophil count increase, and male gender. CONCLUSION: The dynamic patterns of liver injury indicators and their potential risk factors may provide an important explanation for the COVID-19-associated liver injury. Because elevated liver injury indicators, particularly AST, are strongly associated with the mortality risk, our study indicates that these parameters should be monitored during hospitalization.